New Onion

The proposed new Bermuda International Airport terminal has already elicited summary commentary from Vexed and politics.bm.

IMHO this rendering reflects everything that’s wrong with both architect’s understanding of Bermuda and the Bermuda Government’s lavish proposals.

The key things wrong with it:
- Incredibly expensive.

We’re looking at a cost of 300-400 MILLION dollars… which given the Bermuda government’s record in contracting really means 600 million dollars. Assuming they don’t manage to go over budget then it’s between a 22 million and 30 million annual payment amortised over 30 years – and I think it’s correct to look it as an amortised expense not capitalised because we’re almost certainly going to pay for it with more debt on top of the billion or so dollars already racked up.

- Terrible use of land.

In most of the island it’s worthwhile to build multi-story car parks to maximise the amount of available space. The same is true of government land, even if we pretend it’s worthless the reality is that virtually the entire buildable land of Bermuda faces economics more like the downtown of a major city – see: London City Airport. It shouldn’t be an architect’s wet dream of a sea of palm trees and grand indoor spaces. We have a land use crisis in Bermuda that stems in large part from government inappropriately using land (Morgan’s Point, Club Med, etc.)

The problem with “iconic” buildings is that they have a nasty habit of looking the same everywhere in the world and of becoming dated with time. Being iconic builidng is a bit like being a respected politician – if you have to tell people you’re one then you’re probably not.

This is what an iconic Bermuda building really looks like:

For today make it cheap, make it work, and make it efficient – ie. maintain and renovate the existing building as necessary.

We will need to build a new airport in the next 100 years as sea level rises somewhere between a few inches and a few feet… that’s where we should be pointing this incredibly large chunk of our resources.

I’m disappoint with the behavior of almost everyone on the gambling debate with the exception of the UBP and the PLP back bench. On Facebook the BDA likened the harm of gambling to the harm of alcohol and said that:

The truth is however that addiction problems will develop in a small proportion of people….whatever the “substance”. We recognize that alcohol is the most common substance of abuse/dependence, yet there is no debate over making this illegal in Bermuda.

This is true, but nor do we consider legalising and taxing cocaine production for the financial and tourism benefits, despite similar levels of long-term addiction as a percentage of the population who has partaken. Indeed, legalising drug use would do WONDERs for our tourist business.

Anyway, enough hyperbole and back to the reality of gambling:

Based on the government’s own numbers of an average of over $22 million dollars will come out of local pockets and into the pockets of the casino operators.

Depending on the assumptions we make about the number of locals who gamble the per-person annual losses range from $32,745 at 1% of locals gambling to $3,275 per person for 10% of locals gambling

22,266,666/680= 1% – $32,745 per person
10% = -$3,275 per person.

Needless to say, a small fraction of all gamblers are responsible for the majority of the financial losses. In any case, let’s pretend that we’re dealing with average gamblers.

During a 20 year gambling career that’s an average transfer of wealth from each gambling local to the casinos of between $64,901 in our 10% of locals case, and $654,901 in the 1% case.

In addition, gambling problems overwhelmingly affect young men of low income… you know, the same ones who are currently hurting the most and most at risk for drug problems, arrest, jail time, etc. Normal gambling debts incurred by problem gamblers is between $50,000 and $90,000 dollars – to say nothing of the lost income, retail consumption, and family support lost… and one of the big reason that people get beaten or chopped on this island is (you guessed it) – unpaid debts.

Seems someone new is throwing his/her hat in the ring… welcome Slimey In Bermuda.

I’m curious about Wayne Furbert’s switch to the PLP. Aside from the triumph of identity politics reflected in his speech upon crossing the floor, what has really changed?

What I mean, is that I’d be curious to know what practical changes have come in his standpoints on policy?

Does he now support…
…gambling…
…independence…
…financial mismanagement…
…a liar of a Premier…
…constant rotation of education ministers…
…faith based tourism…
…spin…
…race baiting…
…personal attacks…

Wayne is the guy who has done more to destroy the UBP than anyone else. His tenure as leader was a disaster and his crossing of the floor is just another nail in the coffin.

What really gets me bent out of shape about the PLP is the insistence that members check their conscience at the door and “put their party ahead of themselves”. Privately there are a wide variety of PLP members who will speak vividly and accurately on the failings of the party to serve the people of Bermuda but publicly we only hear the smallest of squeaks from Alex Scott, Randy Horton, and a handful of others.

Personally I don’t think the PLP will be defeated in an election anytime soon, but that shouldn’t stop us from getting together and pushing to create a better way.

One thing about this whole Southlands/Morgan’s Point debacle doesn’t add up. Dr. Ewart Brown’s normal clown show of self-interest, meddling, and hidden motives is by this point being revealed.

What I don’t understand is this:

Why were the owners of Southlands Ltd. so excited when they bought Southlands? At the time of the purchase it was zoned such that it could really only be used as a cottage colony. I wouldn’t make that kind of buy, have architects do a huge amount of work, then bank on an SDO to make construction possible… it would be wildly speculative and hugely risky, especially in a world that was at the time full of far easier and lower-risk development options.

Did they have behind the scenes assurances from the politicians that they’d allow the land to be effectively rezoned?

If so, I have absolutely zero sympathy for them and they deserve to get the Southlands property zoned as it was.

So, we’re seeing a public-private partnership to build large docks. Smells like an opportunity for more legal corruption.

Cross Island Marina will be built under a private-public partnership between the West End Development Company (Wedco) and South Basin Development Ltd….

“The multi-phased Cross Island Marina project will offer approximately 200 slips, along with support and club facilities. It will include a mix of slip sizes —100 to 250 feet and possibly in excess of 300 feet long — to accommodate both mega-yachts and those smaller in size. The marina will offer exceptional services for yacht owners, captains, crews and their vessels and it is anticipated that a large number of local yacht owners will take advantage of the new facility.

Here are my questions:
- Who is “South Basin Development Ltd.”? EVERY SINGLE SHAREHOLDER.
- Has the contractor been chosen? ie. is this just to keep Correia’s Gravy Train continuing after the cruise ship terminals and other Dockyard work is finished?
- Is it going to be public risk, private profit?
- Why would mega yachts come here to be serviced?
- Is there a shortage of slip space in Bermuda?
- How do the financials work? Who pays for what? How much will it cost?
- What local yacht owners (I can think of 5 “local” boats and some ferries that may be large enough to use such a facility)?
- Where are the people going to come from to run it/do the work?
- How will the average person be better off?

This smells like another hair-brained idea ripe for corruption and self-dealing. Convince me it’s not, given the history of government projects down there the burden of proof is on those claiming not to be crooked.

IMHO in order to succeed a political party/action organisation needs the following:

Membership Management
Know who your supporters are. Once you have that information then you can 1) ask them for money, 2) communicate with them directly, 3) Ask for volunteers, 4) Take lobbying action.

Volunteer Management
If your organisation has a worthwhile reason to exist and goal then it’s not difficult to find people who are willing to devote a few hours a week to help a cause they believe in. Then use their unique skills – better yet, produce a database of people, their skills, and their availability and call on them to help you. Suddenly you end up with a staff of several hundred part-time finance professionals, graphic designers, writers, administrators, proofreaders, and coffee makers.

Donation Management
In order to fund your organisation you need to use your volunteers and your membership and contact lists to continually ask for donations, then put them to good use. The value of an $5 donation is not the money, it’s having someone buy into your mission financially and personally. They become invested and they are more likely to join your volunteer army.

Communications
Produce good talking points for the different levels of argumentation, from the very simple headline for the entire organisation to the bullet point breakdowns of specific policy points and spreadsheets for sophisticated readers. Directly mail your supporters and ask them to help you lobby, raise funds, or recruit new supporters.

These are the things that Obama did better than his competitors.

In Bermuda the PLP does the above relatively well while the UBP does them terribly, that’s why they’re winning elections despite a demonstrated inability to govern effectively. The PLP’s results speak to this: winning elections while flagrantly mismanaging housing, education, contracting, the budget, etc. Not to mention the general rampant unethical self-dealing and corruption.

To beat the PLP it’s a matter of:
1. Developing a platform and strong identity.
This same process happens in the US, where the Republicans own the brand of “individual freedoms and fiscal responsibility”. Their performance in these areas is irrelevant, it’s the branding that matters. In Bermuda the PLP has their strongly defined black/labour brand, even if their actual record has overwhelmingly favoured the wealthy/landowners.
2. Communicating effectively.
Use talking points communicating the headlines of the platform. Get everyone involved on board and publicly saying the same things about the same topics. This will both lower the constant infighting has plagued the UBP, and produce an us vs. them where simple truisms of talking points make it very hard to oppose the organisation saying them because people find themselves agreeing with them.
A lie repeated loudly and often enough becomes truth. The PLP knows this, that’s why they repeatedly smeared their opposition using the same language over and over again. No matter how crazy it would seem if said once by Marc Bean, it becomes very effective when the whole team, even Paula Cox, is up on a pulpit spouting the same rhetoric. To combat this, an organisation must shout the truth loudly, stick to places where it can be impeccable with its word, and constantly put the PLP on their back foot by both combating their attempts to spin their record and attacking them for the things they haven’t done – which presumably would be addressed in #1.
3. Using the above two to build an army.
Right now we have the poorly defined “combined opposition” from unaffiliated sensible and educated commentators like Larry Burchall and Stuart Hayward to the haphazard organisation of Shawn Crockwell, and the still sensible if ineffective UBP. When all voices of reason are coming from one defined source and one brand then it becomes powerful. There is more than enough wrong with this country to get everyone on the same page (see #1 and #2). We can ALL agree on education, fiscal management, etc.

You’ll note that these largely are functions of the organisation’s staff and executives, not of the politicians themselves.

…is a failure to communicate.

#1 Problem with the UBP

Looks like the Gazette is picking up on what some of us have been predicting… in 2007 I was bullish on the construction industry because I thought that increases in employment would continue and demand for housing would rise to a corresponding degree. The combination of term limits, tighter financing, and global recession has taken us toward the scenario that became more clear in mid 2008.

Overbuilding of commercial buildings is the culprit this time.

In July 2008 I wrote:

The next casualty if real estate goes will be the construction boom. Prices of construction have already risen substantially in dollar terms If the public’s ability to buy falls then builders will not be able to sell quickly, returns to speculative builders will fall, and some may lose money and those most dependent on leverage will fail while most slow down the pace of building. Then the workers building them may then be unemployed – the failure of education and lure of the drug industry have sent a large number of young Bermudians into the combination of drug dealing and construction work. They are going to be pissed off and the effects on Bermuda will be quite painful.

Denis over at 21square.com has also written about this.

Odds of a large hotel project are very low, although there may be a lot of cleanup work done at Morgan’s Point I think we can be sure that the ultimate beneficiaries will be the usual Friends and Family Plan members. At the same time, the overspending by government during the boom times and deficit spending to fund current expenditure has left the government unable to prudently pursue large capital projects now in a time of cheaper construction.

Tips makes a couple of good points in a comment.

…the difference in efficiency between an old tank-type water heater and a newer one is minimal at best. Tankless is a bit better but probably not worthy of a subsidy.

Tankless can be really good in some situations where hot water demand is not regular and constant such as spare bedrooms.

Heat pump water heaters offer very substantial energy savings (comparable to even solar which actually DOES require electricity) but don’t seem to be ready for the single-family home market yet.

My understanding is that there are corrosion issues that make Bermuda especially troublesome.

When it comes to the typical Bermudian household, solar water heating is the greenest and most cost-effective way to heat your water. In my opinion, it should be legally required for all new home construction as it is now in places like Israel.

There is a proposal to do just this circling at the moment (or was a few months ago). I’m not sure I agree because we’re talking a few thousand dollars extra added to the cost of each housing unit. This comes as essentially a fixed cost of more debt and more interest and lower affordability for housing… on the other hand, it is much cheaper to install the plumbing and hardware on a new build than it is to retrofit an older house. As a compromise I might argue for renovations to include mandatory hot water. That way we’re not limiting new housing supply but still able to manage the growth of electricity demand to some degree.

Convince me either way.